So far, so good in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Penguins and Blackhawks are up 2-1 and 2-0 repsectively putting those series bets in the early driver's seat. I've cashed my only two single game plays. And, the Red Wings are up resoundingly in their series. Yes, the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs have been enjoyable to watch so far. They should do this 12 months out of the year, clearly.
Anyway, I'll be making a series of single game plays for the next few evenings.
I might be crazy, but I think these Western Conference series tighten as home ice shifts. Vancouver, Chicago and Detroit have leapt out to 2-0 leads, but their foes remain more than dangerous of rising up now back and home and even knotting these series. I expect two of these three to be even at 2-2 games apiece by the close of day Tuesday.
That treak begins tonight where I like the Blues to hammer out a win in front of an inspired St. Louis crowd. They've been close to beating the Canucks in each of the first two games, but couldn't notch the important third period goal. The Blues get that tonight. I like them a lot tonight and the -120 juice is not much more than standard vig. I doubling up on St. Louis and putting to units on them.
I also like Calgary at -145 to win tomorrow night over the Hawks. I'll just go back to a single play--for now--on this. With a bounce ot two, it could be the Flames up 2-0 in this series. I think they some good karma comes their way at home.
I am not sure what to do with the Wings game. I dont think they get the sweep. At the very least, Mason should be able to steal a game for the Blue Jackets to avoid a whitewash. The Jackets remain the underdog checking in at +135 for game three. Won or lose, they'll be getting underdog odds in Game Four. Since I am so sure that Detroit wont get the sweep, I ought to put a unit on the Jackets both nights. If they split ensues, that investment, looked through a singluar prism, will come out with some profit. Most other 1-1 splits, results in lost juice to the Book. The opposite would happen here.
Intriguing. Luckily, I have until Tuesday night to toss this around.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
NBA playoffs
Its funny how circumstance change uickly in sports world.
For the last three years or so, a Cavs-Pistons playoff matchup would be a marquee set that would set my little nook on Northwest Ohio on its ear. Four hours before the tip of the first game of their first round playoff game, nobody is really setting aside their Saturday afternoon for this game. Well, Cavs fans are. There team could be starting a historic run today for professional sports in Cleveland. They've been dominant all season long. They have the best player on the planet, not named Kobe. They shouldn't lose a home game during the Eastern Conference Tournament.
The Pistons for the first time in six seasons are not a contender. Their string onf Eastern Conference Finals appearances will end resoundingly before the end of the month. What happens in the off season, moves to keep the franchise from falling into a decade-long drought like they did after breaking up their last title contender, will be more important than the results of their games over the next week.
This should be a mistmatch. The odds reflect that. Do you want to win $100 on the Cavaliers to win this series? Get ready to risk a lot up front as the odds for that are -3500. Right now you would need to pony up $3,500 to get in on that action. Remarkably, thats down from -4000 from Friday morning. Assuming odds get adjusted due to the flow of action, that means some wiseguys are plunking down cash on a long underdog, the Pistons have been anywhere from 15/1 to 18/1 to win the series. Why anyone would want to burn money on that "nag" is beyond me. Folks, David Stern will not let the Cavaliers bow out this early. Dont lure yourself into that low risk, high reward longshot.
If your goal is to ensure profit during the upcoming days of hoops between the Cavs and the Pistons, look into the Exact Games portion of your book's menu. There, you'll find the ultimate longshot--the Pistons sweeping the Cavs at 50/1. Check the news first to make sure that Lebron has been kidnapped by Somalian pirates or not. If he has, maybe think about this one.
Save for a stunning development, I'm focuing on the Cavs winning a short series. The odds wont make you rich. The Cavs in 4 is +125 (meaning, for every $100, you wager you would win back $125) and the Cavs in 5 is +150. Pick one of those. It's hard to see either one of those two not coming through. The Pistons might get one game, the proverbial backs-to-the-wall, but returning home Herculean effort in Game 3 that we see a lot of in the NBA and NHL playoffs. but, otherwise, they do not have the horses to win consistently against the Cavaliers.
If deciding between four or five games, consider this strategy. Put a unit on each. If your goal and the end of the day is to take the events on the sports calendar and turning as many profits as possible, then this looks like a way to virtually ensure mroe money back than spent when the final buzzer sounds. If either hits, you will either win 1/4 or a half unit.
That does not sound like a bunch of loot to win, but consider these scenarios. If you're a big time player, waging a couple grand per bet, the net outcome, while small to your usual winners can cover the juice of anwhere between 25-50 bets. Thats pretty important incoming cash if this is your livlihood.
Or, if you're someone like me, gambling much smaller units a win either way would practically double the current profits of this blog's gambling habit, currently sitting at a whopping +0.3 Units. You cant argue a result that could spike your profits at that high a percentage clip in the span of 10 days. The blog does have a few first round series bets on both the ice and hardwood out there that will impact the bottom line, but the net from winning this bet would be a nice cherry on top of whatever winnings comes from those.
The winnings might be small, but not negligible enough to not do it. In the event, both lose, you're only in a true 0-2 whole, and whether big time player and fellow small fish, you will have 0-2 streaks throughout the year. The loss wont be a red letter setback.
I want to end with a profit on the NBA playoffs. Making these bets should add something to that pot.
In addition, I really like the Bulls +9 in Game One over Boston. The seemingly mismatch experience wise is a little overrated and I think with Gordon and Rose the Bulls will have enough scoring to overcome that and keep this game within single digits. I've always liked Gordon's ability to turn on his scoring drive. I an more than intrgiued to see just how Derek Rose plays in his first playoff. My guess? His star will shine. I think the Bulls give the Celtics a run this whole series. Boston was very overrated last year during the early rounded expected walk overs, going 8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS. The Bulls are playing about as well as the Cavs were last spring--save for being able to lean on a mega super start--and Cleveland was able to stay withint single digits in three of the four games in Boston. Now, the Celtics dont have Garnett. They just dont look like a playoff team who should be laying big numbers.
In a another series pick, I like Portland to take down the Rockets. The line is -145. I enjoy this Portland club. They're fun to watch and they've been remade in the image their fans have demanded--full of good, likable guys. Blazer fans have come back to the franchise in full, hoarse throttle. I expect those fans to have as strong an impact as the fans we saw in Golden State in 2007 and in Atlanta last season. The adrenaline from those crowds helped fuel one epic upset and extend an ultimate David and Goliath match the distance. Unlike those series, with the Blazers we actually get the team with home court advantage in the series and who is no worse than an equal to their foe. It might take seven games to get by Houston, but I love their home edge in this matchup and it will help them advance at least one round.
For the last three years or so, a Cavs-Pistons playoff matchup would be a marquee set that would set my little nook on Northwest Ohio on its ear. Four hours before the tip of the first game of their first round playoff game, nobody is really setting aside their Saturday afternoon for this game. Well, Cavs fans are. There team could be starting a historic run today for professional sports in Cleveland. They've been dominant all season long. They have the best player on the planet, not named Kobe. They shouldn't lose a home game during the Eastern Conference Tournament.
The Pistons for the first time in six seasons are not a contender. Their string onf Eastern Conference Finals appearances will end resoundingly before the end of the month. What happens in the off season, moves to keep the franchise from falling into a decade-long drought like they did after breaking up their last title contender, will be more important than the results of their games over the next week.
This should be a mistmatch. The odds reflect that. Do you want to win $100 on the Cavaliers to win this series? Get ready to risk a lot up front as the odds for that are -3500. Right now you would need to pony up $3,500 to get in on that action. Remarkably, thats down from -4000 from Friday morning. Assuming odds get adjusted due to the flow of action, that means some wiseguys are plunking down cash on a long underdog, the Pistons have been anywhere from 15/1 to 18/1 to win the series. Why anyone would want to burn money on that "nag" is beyond me. Folks, David Stern will not let the Cavaliers bow out this early. Dont lure yourself into that low risk, high reward longshot.
If your goal is to ensure profit during the upcoming days of hoops between the Cavs and the Pistons, look into the Exact Games portion of your book's menu. There, you'll find the ultimate longshot--the Pistons sweeping the Cavs at 50/1. Check the news first to make sure that Lebron has been kidnapped by Somalian pirates or not. If he has, maybe think about this one.
Save for a stunning development, I'm focuing on the Cavs winning a short series. The odds wont make you rich. The Cavs in 4 is +125 (meaning, for every $100, you wager you would win back $125) and the Cavs in 5 is +150. Pick one of those. It's hard to see either one of those two not coming through. The Pistons might get one game, the proverbial backs-to-the-wall, but returning home Herculean effort in Game 3 that we see a lot of in the NBA and NHL playoffs. but, otherwise, they do not have the horses to win consistently against the Cavaliers.
If deciding between four or five games, consider this strategy. Put a unit on each. If your goal and the end of the day is to take the events on the sports calendar and turning as many profits as possible, then this looks like a way to virtually ensure mroe money back than spent when the final buzzer sounds. If either hits, you will either win 1/4 or a half unit.
That does not sound like a bunch of loot to win, but consider these scenarios. If you're a big time player, waging a couple grand per bet, the net outcome, while small to your usual winners can cover the juice of anwhere between 25-50 bets. Thats pretty important incoming cash if this is your livlihood.
Or, if you're someone like me, gambling much smaller units a win either way would practically double the current profits of this blog's gambling habit, currently sitting at a whopping +0.3 Units. You cant argue a result that could spike your profits at that high a percentage clip in the span of 10 days. The blog does have a few first round series bets on both the ice and hardwood out there that will impact the bottom line, but the net from winning this bet would be a nice cherry on top of whatever winnings comes from those.
The winnings might be small, but not negligible enough to not do it. In the event, both lose, you're only in a true 0-2 whole, and whether big time player and fellow small fish, you will have 0-2 streaks throughout the year. The loss wont be a red letter setback.
I want to end with a profit on the NBA playoffs. Making these bets should add something to that pot.
In addition, I really like the Bulls +9 in Game One over Boston. The seemingly mismatch experience wise is a little overrated and I think with Gordon and Rose the Bulls will have enough scoring to overcome that and keep this game within single digits. I've always liked Gordon's ability to turn on his scoring drive. I an more than intrgiued to see just how Derek Rose plays in his first playoff. My guess? His star will shine. I think the Bulls give the Celtics a run this whole series. Boston was very overrated last year during the early rounded expected walk overs, going 8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS. The Bulls are playing about as well as the Cavs were last spring--save for being able to lean on a mega super start--and Cleveland was able to stay withint single digits in three of the four games in Boston. Now, the Celtics dont have Garnett. They just dont look like a playoff team who should be laying big numbers.
In a another series pick, I like Portland to take down the Rockets. The line is -145. I enjoy this Portland club. They're fun to watch and they've been remade in the image their fans have demanded--full of good, likable guys. Blazer fans have come back to the franchise in full, hoarse throttle. I expect those fans to have as strong an impact as the fans we saw in Golden State in 2007 and in Atlanta last season. The adrenaline from those crowds helped fuel one epic upset and extend an ultimate David and Goliath match the distance. Unlike those series, with the Blazers we actually get the team with home court advantage in the series and who is no worse than an equal to their foe. It might take seven games to get by Houston, but I love their home edge in this matchup and it will help them advance at least one round.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Stanley Cup Playoffs!!
Just a quick post on my bets for the first night and first round of the greatest professional tournament in our country--the chase for Lord Stanley's Cup.
Series Bets
--Pittsburgh over Phily, -160
--Chicago over Calgary, -160
Game One Bets
--New Jersey over Carolina, -145
--Chicago over Calgary, -145
I laid off Penguins Game One. It was listed at -185, just too expensive juice. I am fine with my large wager on them for the series. The Flyers are the most penalized team in this tournament. The Penguins sagging power play will have too many chances over the next two weeks and break out of its slump, eventually winning a tight series.
The Blackhawks series bet may be dangerous. There's a chance its being made with my a lot of input from my heart, always a gambling tsk tsk. I take faith that I'm not a Blackhawk fan; hardly I am a die hard Wing Dinger. But, I love seeing the Hawks becoming relevant and built for the long term again. It's great for the NHL to have an amazing hockey town like Chicago buzzing again. And, its great for Detroit, as a regulard season attraction, to see a more-than-competitive Blackhawk team in the mix. Their games used to stop the world for fans, but have been irrelevant for at least a decade. Getting back to this series, there is a lot to like in the Flames, as they bring the best player to the table in Ignilia and a great goalie in Kiprusuff who we know can win playoff series. But I like the Hawks roster top-to-bottom better. And, unlike their brief playoff dalliance in 2001, this Hawks team has the town jacked up. Their crowds will be among the best out there, giving them a tremendous home ice edge. I think home ice carries them through this first round. Dont sleep on Khabibulin, though. The Flames might not have the best goalie and Khabibulin is due a playoff run. They'll take the series in and get a head start with a win in Game One.
As for the Devils, I wanted a little action on at least one game on opening night. The Devils are always tough at home and I love Martin Brodeur. The Devils will give the Cames a dose of defense tonight and get a home ice win.
Series Bets
--Pittsburgh over Phily, -160
--Chicago over Calgary, -160
Game One Bets
--New Jersey over Carolina, -145
--Chicago over Calgary, -145
I laid off Penguins Game One. It was listed at -185, just too expensive juice. I am fine with my large wager on them for the series. The Flyers are the most penalized team in this tournament. The Penguins sagging power play will have too many chances over the next two weeks and break out of its slump, eventually winning a tight series.
The Blackhawks series bet may be dangerous. There's a chance its being made with my a lot of input from my heart, always a gambling tsk tsk. I take faith that I'm not a Blackhawk fan; hardly I am a die hard Wing Dinger. But, I love seeing the Hawks becoming relevant and built for the long term again. It's great for the NHL to have an amazing hockey town like Chicago buzzing again. And, its great for Detroit, as a regulard season attraction, to see a more-than-competitive Blackhawk team in the mix. Their games used to stop the world for fans, but have been irrelevant for at least a decade. Getting back to this series, there is a lot to like in the Flames, as they bring the best player to the table in Ignilia and a great goalie in Kiprusuff who we know can win playoff series. But I like the Hawks roster top-to-bottom better. And, unlike their brief playoff dalliance in 2001, this Hawks team has the town jacked up. Their crowds will be among the best out there, giving them a tremendous home ice edge. I think home ice carries them through this first round. Dont sleep on Khabibulin, though. The Flames might not have the best goalie and Khabibulin is due a playoff run. They'll take the series in and get a head start with a win in Game One.
As for the Devils, I wanted a little action on at least one game on opening night. The Devils are always tough at home and I love Martin Brodeur. The Devils will give the Cames a dose of defense tonight and get a home ice win.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Baseball Lures Me In
It took only about a week, but baseball has lured me into doing a little wagering tonight. I've isolated three series still on the board that I like enough to gamble on. The rest either requires juice too steep for my blood or the better team is on the road. For my first ever series plays, I dont think laying expensive vig and/or the road team is wise strategy. All these plays are to win one unit.
Tampa Bay Rays -110 over New York Yankees In their magical 2008 run, the Rays actually did not have great luck at home against the Yanks. The Rays were unbeatable it seemed at the Trop last season, but the Yanks took two out of the three series against the Rays in Tampa. I think the Rays bounce back take this one from the Yanks. It's going to be hard to make money off the Rays at home this season without risking a lot of juice, so I'm grabbing them on likely the cheapest line they'll have in a home series all season. I like Kazmir over Wang tonight and I really like the Garza matchup tomorrow. Despite the Yanks moves and gaudy payroll, I still think the Rays are the better outfit.
KC -135 over Cleveland I thought long and hard about plunking done so dough on the Royals going over the Vegas win total. I even comtemplated taking them at 6/1 odds to win the AL Central. I backed off because everyone and the mother seemed to be targeting the Royals as this year's Rays. I hate public bandwagons that fill that fast. Nevertheless, the Royals look every bit as good as Cleveland. They opened the year winning a road series at the White Sox. The Tribe aren't pitching as well as the White Sox, so I think the Royals arms will shut down the Tribe in at least one game. And, in at least another their lineup will tatoo the flagging Cleveland staff. They'll snag two out of three.
Texas -160 over Baltimore This is a bit more juice than I like, but since it would not surprise me if the Rangers swept the Orioles, I think the extra cash up will pay dividends. I really like Padilla to notch a win tonight. Then, look for the Rangers lineup to explode in at least one of the other two. We already have a future bet going with the Rangers to go over their win total. That wont be the only wager we make on Texas. I love this team to do very well at home, especially against teams with shaky pitching like Baltimore. Nobody will come into Arlington out slug Texas. I think they dominate the Orioles the next three nights.
So, thats Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Texas to win three-game series that start tonight and run through Wednesday.
Tampa Bay Rays -110 over New York Yankees In their magical 2008 run, the Rays actually did not have great luck at home against the Yanks. The Rays were unbeatable it seemed at the Trop last season, but the Yanks took two out of the three series against the Rays in Tampa. I think the Rays bounce back take this one from the Yanks. It's going to be hard to make money off the Rays at home this season without risking a lot of juice, so I'm grabbing them on likely the cheapest line they'll have in a home series all season. I like Kazmir over Wang tonight and I really like the Garza matchup tomorrow. Despite the Yanks moves and gaudy payroll, I still think the Rays are the better outfit.
KC -135 over Cleveland I thought long and hard about plunking done so dough on the Royals going over the Vegas win total. I even comtemplated taking them at 6/1 odds to win the AL Central. I backed off because everyone and the mother seemed to be targeting the Royals as this year's Rays. I hate public bandwagons that fill that fast. Nevertheless, the Royals look every bit as good as Cleveland. They opened the year winning a road series at the White Sox. The Tribe aren't pitching as well as the White Sox, so I think the Royals arms will shut down the Tribe in at least one game. And, in at least another their lineup will tatoo the flagging Cleveland staff. They'll snag two out of three.
Texas -160 over Baltimore This is a bit more juice than I like, but since it would not surprise me if the Rangers swept the Orioles, I think the extra cash up will pay dividends. I really like Padilla to notch a win tonight. Then, look for the Rangers lineup to explode in at least one of the other two. We already have a future bet going with the Rangers to go over their win total. That wont be the only wager we make on Texas. I love this team to do very well at home, especially against teams with shaky pitching like Baltimore. Nobody will come into Arlington out slug Texas. I think they dominate the Orioles the next three nights.
So, thats Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Texas to win three-game series that start tonight and run through Wednesday.
Futures Update: Week One
The first week of the baseball season was a roller coaster ride as it pertains to the future bets outlined in my post on Opening Day Eve. In the end, the ups and downs will be par for the course. With a week in the books, here is where we stand:
Cardinals, Over 83 wins After one week, the Cardinals are on pace to win the most games in the National League in over 100 years. That's what a 5-2 opening week will do for you. They're on pace for 115 wins, so this one will be easy, right? Doubtful. For starters, they opened with a home stand against the Pirates and Astros, the two likely cellar dweller tomatoe cans of the division. Still, it was nice to see them get off to a good start. Riding a four-game winning streak, hopefully their winning ways will continue as they embark on their first round trip of the season. The rest of the month, the Cards play teams expected to compete for NL playoff spots. They good start was necessary given that backdrop. With three games in Arizona this week, followed by four big ones in Wrigley Field, over the weekend, I will be doing back flips if the Redbirds manage a winning week.
Projection: 115 wins. Result: Winner
Texas, Over 74 wins
The good: The resounding sweep of the Cleveland Indians to start the season. The bad: Dropping their next 2 games on the road to Detroit. The Ugly: The bullpen blowing a 4-run lead in the eight inning yesterday en route to being swept out of town by Detroit. Through it all, a 3-3 week has the Rangers on pace for 81 wins. Of course, we'll take that result, but we're counting the numner of games this pen blows for us. Really, somebody should a set a number and take bets, over or under, on how many games this pen blows a game. Anyway, Texas returns to Arlington this week for a pair of three-game series against Baltimore and Kansas City. I expect them to be in the same position next Sunday as they were yesterday: A win away from a winning week or a lose away from a .500 week.
Projection: 81 wins. Result: Winner
LA Dodgers to win the NL West
The Dodgers got off to a nice 4-3 start. If they keep putting winning weeks on the board, I am sure they'll take the NL West flag when its all said and done. As it stands today, however, the Dodgers are one game behind the San Diego Padres, who ended week one with a 5-2 record. If the Fathers end up being their primary competition, I am fine with that. I dont think San Diego has the horses for a six-month season. But, since LA is in second place, this projection has to be graded as loser today. LA finally gets some home games this week with consecutive series agasint division rivals San Francisco and Colorado. Hopefully being at home elads to more wins, not to mention springs Manny from an early season slump, at least by his standards.
Projection, second place. Result: Loser
Miguel Cabrera, Over 33.5 home runs
Through seven games, Miggy has gone yard three times, including a gran slam last Friday during the Tiger's home opener.. Check that, the Tigers just finished their matinee with the White Sox--a 10-6 loss-- and despite the offense, there was no long ball from Cabrera. Still, 3 dongs in the first eight games puts Miggy on pace to hit a smidge more than 60 this season. Cabrera can go homerless in Detroit's next six games--a stretch that takes them to the end of next Tuesday night's game in Anaheim--and still be on pace to exceeed the 33.5 home run mark. Let's hope he hits one or two between now and then so we can stay well ahead of pace. He's going to have a monster summer, so I feel this early power surge is some pre-iciing on the cake, of sorts. He just missed a second homer during the home opener by inches. Hopefully, those aren't inches I'll regretfully remember come October.
Projection: 60 homers. Result, winner
Projected Record After Week 1: 3-1
Margin: +570
ROI: 47.5%
Each bet was 330 to win 300
Cardinals, Over 83 wins After one week, the Cardinals are on pace to win the most games in the National League in over 100 years. That's what a 5-2 opening week will do for you. They're on pace for 115 wins, so this one will be easy, right? Doubtful. For starters, they opened with a home stand against the Pirates and Astros, the two likely cellar dweller tomatoe cans of the division. Still, it was nice to see them get off to a good start. Riding a four-game winning streak, hopefully their winning ways will continue as they embark on their first round trip of the season. The rest of the month, the Cards play teams expected to compete for NL playoff spots. They good start was necessary given that backdrop. With three games in Arizona this week, followed by four big ones in Wrigley Field, over the weekend, I will be doing back flips if the Redbirds manage a winning week.
Projection: 115 wins. Result: Winner
Texas, Over 74 wins
The good: The resounding sweep of the Cleveland Indians to start the season. The bad: Dropping their next 2 games on the road to Detroit. The Ugly: The bullpen blowing a 4-run lead in the eight inning yesterday en route to being swept out of town by Detroit. Through it all, a 3-3 week has the Rangers on pace for 81 wins. Of course, we'll take that result, but we're counting the numner of games this pen blows for us. Really, somebody should a set a number and take bets, over or under, on how many games this pen blows a game. Anyway, Texas returns to Arlington this week for a pair of three-game series against Baltimore and Kansas City. I expect them to be in the same position next Sunday as they were yesterday: A win away from a winning week or a lose away from a .500 week.
Projection: 81 wins. Result: Winner
LA Dodgers to win the NL West
The Dodgers got off to a nice 4-3 start. If they keep putting winning weeks on the board, I am sure they'll take the NL West flag when its all said and done. As it stands today, however, the Dodgers are one game behind the San Diego Padres, who ended week one with a 5-2 record. If the Fathers end up being their primary competition, I am fine with that. I dont think San Diego has the horses for a six-month season. But, since LA is in second place, this projection has to be graded as loser today. LA finally gets some home games this week with consecutive series agasint division rivals San Francisco and Colorado. Hopefully being at home elads to more wins, not to mention springs Manny from an early season slump, at least by his standards.
Projection, second place. Result: Loser
Miguel Cabrera, Over 33.5 home runs
Through seven games, Miggy has gone yard three times, including a gran slam last Friday during the Tiger's home opener.. Check that, the Tigers just finished their matinee with the White Sox--a 10-6 loss-- and despite the offense, there was no long ball from Cabrera. Still, 3 dongs in the first eight games puts Miggy on pace to hit a smidge more than 60 this season. Cabrera can go homerless in Detroit's next six games--a stretch that takes them to the end of next Tuesday night's game in Anaheim--and still be on pace to exceeed the 33.5 home run mark. Let's hope he hits one or two between now and then so we can stay well ahead of pace. He's going to have a monster summer, so I feel this early power surge is some pre-iciing on the cake, of sorts. He just missed a second homer during the home opener by inches. Hopefully, those aren't inches I'll regretfully remember come October.
Projection: 60 homers. Result, winner
Projected Record After Week 1: 3-1
Margin: +570
ROI: 47.5%
Each bet was 330 to win 300
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Baseball Future Bets
While watching the opening night game between the Braves and Phillies--and, hey, why not with Derek Lowe, Ibanez and Victorino on my fantasy team this is a pretty big game--how about I toss out a few future bets for the 2009 baseball season.
Texas Rangers, Over 74.5 wins. I love this team. They have the best lineup in the AL West. While their pitching leaves a lot to be desired, they are solid enough with their top two in the rotation and at the back half of their games to expect some improvement in that department. I expect this club to bring up a pair of minor league studs at some point this season to solidify the bullpen even more. They've won 75 or more games five years running, including four seasons of at least 79 victories. Heading into Opening Day, the Rangers stand stronger than they did with either of those clubs. They might be a year away from legit contention, but I expect the Rangers to get at least 80 wins. With Texas opening with six in a row against the local Indians and Tigers, we'll see a lot of the Rangers in the first week. I'll go deeper into why I made this pick throughout the week as those games unfold.j
St. Louis Cardinals, Over 83.5 wins I dont know if the Cards can overtake the Cubbies in the division race, but I would be stunned if St. Louis isn't the main NL Central rival pushing the north siders all the way to the end. I'm banking on full seasons out of Adam Wainwright and, more importantly, Chris Carpenter. The word out of spring is that Carpenter is back. If he gets 30 starts, they'll take the division race all the way to the final week. At the least, the Cards will flirt with 90 wins and will also be a major player in the Wild Card race. In the NL Central, the Astros will be bad, the Pirates worse and the Brewers, despite a sweet lineup, will struggle to stay at the .500 mark in the wake of the Sabathia and Sheet departures. The Cardinals will take advantage of all those divisional games to put up a nice record this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers, to win NL West, +120 I debated between taking the Dodgers Over 85 wins or the win-the-division bet. The won this division last season with 85 wins last year and can do that again this year. I think they're easily the best team in the NL West and when the win the division, it wont matter how many wins they'll have. A full season out of Manny and the shred addition of Orlando Cabrera gives the Dodgers the chance to be a big front runner in this field. And, I'll just pretend I'm not worried that that team I picked is trotting out Kurduda as an opening day starter.
Miguel Cabrera, Over 33.5 home runs My only player future bet. Miggy is hitting his prime. He's in a lineup that offers a lot of protection and has a full year of the American League and being in a northern city under his belt. Once he got comfy last season, he tore through AL pitching. He'll get a full season of comfortable this season and his already impressive numbers will spike up even more. He'll be closer to 40 big bombs than the 30. Doing this gives me some financial stake in the Tigers season. The Homer in me wanted to go Over 81.5 wins, but the Tigers look like a mess in so many spots that they could win or lose 10 more games than that numbers, and I would not be surprised. One area where they wont have a question mark is in Cabrera's spot in the lineup from where he will pen a MVP caliber season.
All four of these are for two units and should give me something to follow all season. I may add a quick fifth on before the first pitch gets thrown tomorrow. We'll see.
Texas Rangers, Over 74.5 wins. I love this team. They have the best lineup in the AL West. While their pitching leaves a lot to be desired, they are solid enough with their top two in the rotation and at the back half of their games to expect some improvement in that department. I expect this club to bring up a pair of minor league studs at some point this season to solidify the bullpen even more. They've won 75 or more games five years running, including four seasons of at least 79 victories. Heading into Opening Day, the Rangers stand stronger than they did with either of those clubs. They might be a year away from legit contention, but I expect the Rangers to get at least 80 wins. With Texas opening with six in a row against the local Indians and Tigers, we'll see a lot of the Rangers in the first week. I'll go deeper into why I made this pick throughout the week as those games unfold.j
St. Louis Cardinals, Over 83.5 wins I dont know if the Cards can overtake the Cubbies in the division race, but I would be stunned if St. Louis isn't the main NL Central rival pushing the north siders all the way to the end. I'm banking on full seasons out of Adam Wainwright and, more importantly, Chris Carpenter. The word out of spring is that Carpenter is back. If he gets 30 starts, they'll take the division race all the way to the final week. At the least, the Cards will flirt with 90 wins and will also be a major player in the Wild Card race. In the NL Central, the Astros will be bad, the Pirates worse and the Brewers, despite a sweet lineup, will struggle to stay at the .500 mark in the wake of the Sabathia and Sheet departures. The Cardinals will take advantage of all those divisional games to put up a nice record this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers, to win NL West, +120 I debated between taking the Dodgers Over 85 wins or the win-the-division bet. The won this division last season with 85 wins last year and can do that again this year. I think they're easily the best team in the NL West and when the win the division, it wont matter how many wins they'll have. A full season out of Manny and the shred addition of Orlando Cabrera gives the Dodgers the chance to be a big front runner in this field. And, I'll just pretend I'm not worried that that team I picked is trotting out Kurduda as an opening day starter.
Miguel Cabrera, Over 33.5 home runs My only player future bet. Miggy is hitting his prime. He's in a lineup that offers a lot of protection and has a full year of the American League and being in a northern city under his belt. Once he got comfy last season, he tore through AL pitching. He'll get a full season of comfortable this season and his already impressive numbers will spike up even more. He'll be closer to 40 big bombs than the 30. Doing this gives me some financial stake in the Tigers season. The Homer in me wanted to go Over 81.5 wins, but the Tigers look like a mess in so many spots that they could win or lose 10 more games than that numbers, and I would not be surprised. One area where they wont have a question mark is in Cabrera's spot in the lineup from where he will pen a MVP caliber season.
All four of these are for two units and should give me something to follow all season. I may add a quick fifth on before the first pitch gets thrown tomorrow. We'll see.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Nice Work Sparty
Big 10 Fans Unite!
Stellar work by Sparty tonight. What a night in Detroit.
Here's what's been impressive about MSU in their last two tournament wins: Last time out, they played the high octane offense of the Big East Champion and shackled them, allowing just 52 points. Tonight, they played an ogre defense and dominate rebounding squad from the Big East and rang up 80 points.
Against Louisville, they stymied a potent transition game by controlling tempo. Tonight, against Uconn, they won with a different tact: Using speed, athleticsm and depth too push tempo and make the game faster. The whole game turned around when the Spartans scored six straight fast break points, all on virtual breakaways in the middle of the second half. But, the whole game MSU's ability to push the floor after closing down the defensive glass, both nuetralized a Huskie advantage while targeting their own transition strenghth.
Versatile. A lot of parts. A coach who has relentlessly prodded them in an attempt to capture this very moment, in this very city. Yes, they've caught basketball magic, but they're also extremely talented.
I wonder if Digger Phelps will attribute any of MSU's success in winning against such high end foes, in two different styles, to first having to navigate a challenging Big 10 slate. I wont hold me breath.
Looks like they will get their rematch with UNC. The Heels are dominating Nova, 47-31, laste in the first half and show no sign of letting this one slip away. For the third straight game, the Heels were -7 according to the experts in the desert. The outcome was never in doubt against the Zags or OU. Tonight looks more of the same. We'll see if even the spread can get back into to play tonight. That's the second half drama.
I will say, I would be willing to take MSU +7 Monday night if indeed they're playing UNC. They're a much different team now. Suton didn't play in that one and guys like Roe, Summers. Lucious and Green have expanded their roles within the team frame work by leaps and bounds since then. Plus, it was only game 5 of Kailon Lucas leading the show. This team is so much better now that it was four months ago when they first played the Heels.
We'll see. I'm just glad the Big 10 continues to look good. Enjoy the hype between now and Monday night.
Stellar work by Sparty tonight. What a night in Detroit.
Here's what's been impressive about MSU in their last two tournament wins: Last time out, they played the high octane offense of the Big East Champion and shackled them, allowing just 52 points. Tonight, they played an ogre defense and dominate rebounding squad from the Big East and rang up 80 points.
Against Louisville, they stymied a potent transition game by controlling tempo. Tonight, against Uconn, they won with a different tact: Using speed, athleticsm and depth too push tempo and make the game faster. The whole game turned around when the Spartans scored six straight fast break points, all on virtual breakaways in the middle of the second half. But, the whole game MSU's ability to push the floor after closing down the defensive glass, both nuetralized a Huskie advantage while targeting their own transition strenghth.
Versatile. A lot of parts. A coach who has relentlessly prodded them in an attempt to capture this very moment, in this very city. Yes, they've caught basketball magic, but they're also extremely talented.
I wonder if Digger Phelps will attribute any of MSU's success in winning against such high end foes, in two different styles, to first having to navigate a challenging Big 10 slate. I wont hold me breath.
Looks like they will get their rematch with UNC. The Heels are dominating Nova, 47-31, laste in the first half and show no sign of letting this one slip away. For the third straight game, the Heels were -7 according to the experts in the desert. The outcome was never in doubt against the Zags or OU. Tonight looks more of the same. We'll see if even the spread can get back into to play tonight. That's the second half drama.
I will say, I would be willing to take MSU +7 Monday night if indeed they're playing UNC. They're a much different team now. Suton didn't play in that one and guys like Roe, Summers. Lucious and Green have expanded their roles within the team frame work by leaps and bounds since then. Plus, it was only game 5 of Kailon Lucas leading the show. This team is so much better now that it was four months ago when they first played the Heels.
We'll see. I'm just glad the Big 10 continues to look good. Enjoy the hype between now and Monday night.
Just Cover Baby
That's the motto around here, anyway. Its not whether you won or lost the game, but did you cover the spread?
One of the underlining themes of this blog will be covering sports from a gambling perspective, offering insights, facts, commentary, theories and anecdotes from both winning and losing perspectives. And, of course, picks. Dont expect a lot of picks until football season, however, as I'm not much of a player with baseball and only do limited NBA and NHL playoff plays, like a series wager or two.
It wont all be about sports gambling. Hardly. The sports obsession runs deep. College football and basketball will be big topics. Those sports are passions of mine. Michigan athletics, and, by extension, the Big 10 will be featured heavily, but there will be plenty of national analysis on the menu as we go forward. Pro sports wont be ignored and the coverage will be slanted towards the happenings of the pro teams in Michigan and Ohio. The day-to-day comedy that will be the AL Central race this summer carries the potential of buckets of material.
That's the basic jist of this blog.
The first real post will come sometime tomorrow, listing our future bets for the 2009 baseball season. Posts will follow that one during the week going further in detail on those picks. Sometime this week, I'll have my official AL Central preview, from a non gambling perspective. But, we'll be back in the sports book as the NHL and NBA playoff pictures finalize with commentary, predictions and formal picks. And, despite it being April, there will be plenty of posts this month already looking ahead to next season's college football and basketball action.
Cheers!
One of the underlining themes of this blog will be covering sports from a gambling perspective, offering insights, facts, commentary, theories and anecdotes from both winning and losing perspectives. And, of course, picks. Dont expect a lot of picks until football season, however, as I'm not much of a player with baseball and only do limited NBA and NHL playoff plays, like a series wager or two.
It wont all be about sports gambling. Hardly. The sports obsession runs deep. College football and basketball will be big topics. Those sports are passions of mine. Michigan athletics, and, by extension, the Big 10 will be featured heavily, but there will be plenty of national analysis on the menu as we go forward. Pro sports wont be ignored and the coverage will be slanted towards the happenings of the pro teams in Michigan and Ohio. The day-to-day comedy that will be the AL Central race this summer carries the potential of buckets of material.
That's the basic jist of this blog.
The first real post will come sometime tomorrow, listing our future bets for the 2009 baseball season. Posts will follow that one during the week going further in detail on those picks. Sometime this week, I'll have my official AL Central preview, from a non gambling perspective. But, we'll be back in the sports book as the NHL and NBA playoff pictures finalize with commentary, predictions and formal picks. And, despite it being April, there will be plenty of posts this month already looking ahead to next season's college football and basketball action.
Cheers!
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