NBA playoffs

Its funny how circumstance change uickly in sports world.

For the last three years or so, a Cavs-Pistons playoff matchup would be a marquee set that would set my little nook on Northwest Ohio on its ear. Four hours before the tip of the first game of their first round playoff game, nobody is really setting aside their Saturday afternoon for this game. Well, Cavs fans are. There team could be starting a historic run today for professional sports in Cleveland. They've been dominant all season long. They have the best player on the planet, not named Kobe. They shouldn't lose a home game during the Eastern Conference Tournament.

The Pistons for the first time in six seasons are not a contender. Their string onf Eastern Conference Finals appearances will end resoundingly before the end of the month. What happens in the off season, moves to keep the franchise from falling into a decade-long drought like they did after breaking up their last title contender, will be more important than the results of their games over the next week.

This should be a mistmatch. The odds reflect that. Do you want to win $100 on the Cavaliers to win this series? Get ready to risk a lot up front as the odds for that are -3500. Right now you would need to pony up $3,500 to get in on that action. Remarkably, thats down from -4000 from Friday morning. Assuming odds get adjusted due to the flow of action, that means some wiseguys are plunking down cash on a long underdog, the Pistons have been anywhere from 15/1 to 18/1 to win the series. Why anyone would want to burn money on that "nag" is beyond me. Folks, David Stern will not let the Cavaliers bow out this early. Dont lure yourself into that low risk, high reward longshot.

If your goal is to ensure profit during the upcoming days of hoops between the Cavs and the Pistons, look into the Exact Games portion of your book's menu. There, you'll find the ultimate longshot--the Pistons sweeping the Cavs at 50/1. Check the news first to make sure that Lebron has been kidnapped by Somalian pirates or not. If he has, maybe think about this one.

Save for a stunning development, I'm focuing on the Cavs winning a short series. The odds wont make you rich. The Cavs in 4 is +125 (meaning, for every $100, you wager you would win back $125) and the Cavs in 5 is +150. Pick one of those. It's hard to see either one of those two not coming through. The Pistons might get one game, the proverbial backs-to-the-wall, but returning home Herculean effort in Game 3 that we see a lot of in the NBA and NHL playoffs. but, otherwise, they do not have the horses to win consistently against the Cavaliers.

If deciding between four or five games, consider this strategy. Put a unit on each. If your goal and the end of the day is to take the events on the sports calendar and turning as many profits as possible, then this looks like a way to virtually ensure mroe money back than spent when the final buzzer sounds. If either hits, you will either win 1/4 or a half unit.

That does not sound like a bunch of loot to win, but consider these scenarios. If you're a big time player, waging a couple grand per bet, the net outcome, while small to your usual winners can cover the juice of anwhere between 25-50 bets. Thats pretty important incoming cash if this is your livlihood.

Or, if you're someone like me, gambling much smaller units a win either way would practically double the current profits of this blog's gambling habit, currently sitting at a whopping +0.3 Units. You cant argue a result that could spike your profits at that high a percentage clip in the span of 10 days. The blog does have a few first round series bets on both the ice and hardwood out there that will impact the bottom line, but the net from winning this bet would be a nice cherry on top of whatever winnings comes from those.

The winnings might be small, but not negligible enough to not do it. In the event, both lose, you're only in a true 0-2 whole, and whether big time player and fellow small fish, you will have 0-2 streaks throughout the year. The loss wont be a red letter setback.

I want to end with a profit on the NBA playoffs. Making these bets should add something to that pot.

In addition, I really like the Bulls +9 in Game One over Boston. The seemingly mismatch experience wise is a little overrated and I think with Gordon and Rose the Bulls will have enough scoring to overcome that and keep this game within single digits. I've always liked Gordon's ability to turn on his scoring drive. I an more than intrgiued to see just how Derek Rose plays in his first playoff. My guess? His star will shine. I think the Bulls give the Celtics a run this whole series. Boston was very overrated last year during the early rounded expected walk overs, going 8-6 SU, 4-10 ATS. The Bulls are playing about as well as the Cavs were last spring--save for being able to lean on a mega super start--and Cleveland was able to stay withint single digits in three of the four games in Boston. Now, the Celtics dont have Garnett. They just dont look like a playoff team who should be laying big numbers.

In a another series pick, I like Portland to take down the Rockets. The line is -145. I enjoy this Portland club. They're fun to watch and they've been remade in the image their fans have demanded--full of good, likable guys. Blazer fans have come back to the franchise in full, hoarse throttle. I expect those fans to have as strong an impact as the fans we saw in Golden State in 2007 and in Atlanta last season. The adrenaline from those crowds helped fuel one epic upset and extend an ultimate David and Goliath match the distance. Unlike those series, with the Blazers we actually get the team with home court advantage in the series and who is no worse than an equal to their foe. It might take seven games to get by Houston, but I love their home edge in this matchup and it will help them advance at least one round.